One-Termer?

"As people learn what's actually in the bill, that six months from now, by election time, this is going to be a plus because the parade of horribles, particularly the worry that the average middle class person has that this is going to affect them negatively, will have vanished and they'll see that it'll affect them positively in many ways, " Sen. Chuck Schumer, D.N.Y., said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press." (FoxNews, 3/29/10)

It is now roughly seven months until the November mid-term elections which will have enormous consequences for the Obama presidency. If the Dems suffer the losses that some are predicting, it is quite possible that Obama becomes a lame duck President. What went wrong?

Obama’s go-for-broke strategy on health care, coming on top of his budget busting stimulus package ignited a populist uprising. Both programs are viewed by many as radical and irresponsible. The notion that people will learn to love the health care bill, as noted above, just strikes RedStateVT as wishful thinking. The discontent is such that we suspect no Democrat will want to take on any other of Obama’s initiatives between now and election time. They will have their hands full defending what they have already passed, let alone engage in another brawl about, say, cap and trade. On top of high unemployment, incumbent Dems will have their work cut out.

Republicans will run on fiscal restraint (although they are certainly not entirely pure on the issue) and on repealing the more radical elements of the health care bill. You have to buy health insurance or you go to jail?

Had Obama taken a more centrist approach – a more targeted stimulus package, smaller health care reforms – the Democrat majorities and his presidency would have had greater likelihood of surviving. Obama claims that he will be satisfied with a single term – presumably if he is able to enact more of his agenda. But if we are correct that Dems will not take a chance on pushing hard for the next Obama initiatives, and if they suffer losses in November, then his agenda is thwarted and it is hard to see a second Obama term. He will be left with a struggling economy and a health care plan vulnerable to endless legal challenges.